Be in 2015 with the summit summit of 2016 later, because the government between international investigates the immediate cause such as Yan Ke, the whole worldSemiconductor is boughtArrive from the amount a record amount is rapid drop. Comb the record of semiconductor M&A investment that 2018 annual produce, xian Shaochao spends 10 billion dollar, continued basically the posture 2017. Arrive from home international market, semiconductor industry experienced the double circumstances with biting first half of the year cold wind of in full swing, second half of the year this year; International condition is daedal, in “ nearly 10 years of worst cake 2019 of a year of ” , the trend that global semiconductor industry buys will how? The article tries to show opinion slightly with PEST analysis.
Figure 1 semiconductor closes and buy proposal agreement total amount (2010-2017) , origin: IC Insights
Figure 2 semiconductor closes and buy proposal agreement total amount (2016Q3-2018Q3) , origin: Capital IQ
One, political element (policy of commerce limitation, taxation)
Stem from politics to think with be opposite forestall and country are anxious safely, two remarkable high specified numbers buy case all proclaimed 2018 abortion: Rich is connected buy what connect high to invite with a huge sum of 130 billion dollar about by American government one paper ban is overruled, connect the 44 billion big weak dollar that buys NXP high to also did not obtain Chinese government to examine and approve. Meanwhile, early or late China Can photoelectricity buys MEMSIC, science and technology famous peaceful to buy Nexperia, China achieve those who buy the proprietor of an enterprise of many our country such as Akrion to guide to cross condition semiconductor to buy case, for a short while public opinion media hits a “ in succession abroad buy surveyor’s pole ” , “CFIUS to examine and approve the word such as first ” , feelings of the masses is excited. In fact, these a few buy case not be by me churchyard semiconductor industry lends his name directly finish, among them or last a period of time is old curvilinear deploy, or the course is careful and the capital of heavy and complicated is run, or borrow condition husband even the hand that Sun Gong manages, wait means a moment, ability must see the dawn of successful complete a business transaction eventually. Road block and long, glad admittedly, ought to using successful experience low-keyly Guang Dacai more is.
No matter whether can Sino-US trade friction alleviate truly,did not come, below the premise that has been made clear to be strategic domain by each country in semiconductor industry, the United States is sure to last to investment limitation of China and technical block. Divide the United States beyond, multilateral the sign that already showed protectionism to look up, buy between international case the obstruction that get is sure stronger; In one country although,buy to home it is to center the resource, mode that enhances competition ability, happy see its are become, but to exotic nation it is potential menace however, still may face his nation the government is examined with antitrust wait for the obstruct that is a form. Accordingly, a case dimensions that semiconductor of prospective whole world buys will be great the likelihood is restricted.
The United States begins to carry out “30 from January 2018 year since the duty of the biggest ” changes dimensions, flower, the Europe such as heart, law is multilateral it is to antedate to before the United States is started actually, make known his position to reduce tax and be advanced more fulfil, japan quickened the pace reducing tax in undertaking further, in addition, rising market country is like India, Argentina to waited to also announce the plan that reduce tax. The taxation that is aimed at an enterprise gets the derate of different level. It is with the United States exemple, not only company tax rate is reduced to 21% , the levy —— that still cancelled pair of abroad circumfluence gain considerably is only one-time to the cash of abroad circumfluence levy 15.5% , to levy taxes of other circumfluence property 8% . This action attracted the profit circumfluence United States of many keep overseas, only 2018 1 quarter, the dividend extra dividend from abroad circumfluence United States at be as high as 340 billion dollar, record-breaking exalted.
Figure 3 United States is not the profit of keep of financial company overseas to hold GDP proportion, origin: U.S. Federal Reserve
Figure 4 holds GDP proportion from the dividend extra dividend of abroad circumfluence United States, origin: U.S. Bureau Of Economic Analysis
According to the United States the investigation of bank of United States forest shows, the enterprise of 42% plans to use circumfluence ready money at close and be being bought; Beautiful couplet store data also supported this, the capital expenditure that is not financial company rose 14 billion dollar first quarter 2018 (3%) of annulus comparing amplitude. The cash of American enterprise overseas distributings center at bibcock science and technology in company hand, give priority to with industry of electronic information semiconductor especially among them, if be connected apple, Microsoft, high, Intel is waited a moment. Semiconductor industry is centered highly already, the tycoon already finished great to oneself meaning receiving to be bought more, the place remnant that buys mark very few, further stubborn stubborn integrated will exceeding test buys square cash situation. Semiconductor industry hand grasps a large number of addition of cash, be being begun to coming to what close and buy undoubtedly is good factor of one big profit.
General of Figure 5 mark 500 in have the company with overseas most cash reserve in a bank, origin: Bloomberg
2, economic element (economic growth, interest rate, exchange rate)
From the point of development trend of whole, close and buy the amount of the case and amount change, with macroscopical economy the year’s harvest high positive closes; In the meantime, finish existence time because consultative best friend is easy finally to differ, the declining tendency that close and buys wants relatively economic be issued to lower levels appears a few later. 2018, from the US stock 3 thumb count MSCI rising market index, arrive from each country bond crude oil Bitcoin, value loss is spectacular; If watch market performance only, global economy is marching toward a decline. Aggravate of trade friction risk, the dollar lasts strong, rising market money devalues considerably, many countries already appeared serious banking crisis, global economy put delay to be basically 2019 finality, each industry should undertake with great quantity capital is run, natural meeting is more careful.
Figure 6 United States closes and buy record amount and amount change curve (unit: Billion dollar, 1985-2017Apr) , origin: Factset
The dollar already was entered again add breath cycle, by force of the pressure of capital outflow, the money before each country Central Bank is tightened up possibly also is loose policy. Semiconductor is capital height concentrated model industry, the company of outstanding achievement depression is right capital, especially the demand of cash is met more get the better of once upon a time, give birth to hurried the turning point that close and purchases. With Microchip bought one case of Microsemi to be 2018 exemple, after incorporating, the cash support new line of credit in company balance sheet and assure bond gets huge improvement, the debt that Microsemi did not repay before also is finished at trading when along with all the others settle. In the near future, of American debenture climb gradually to scheduled time and quantity litre, if semiconductor convention industry cannot develop new growth business in time, and suffer tired Yu Hong to watch economic situation, become those who buy the mark that wait for buy probably, happy care is measured hard. (bold tentative plan, semiconductor of Korea of follow the lead of goes against the operation of periodic investment, take the advantage of economy interest rate of on the low side of value of estimate of company of low ebb period, bank credit is still low, during can buying crucial company in a large-scale just about, announced bankrupt Mapper recently or be good sign)
Figure 7 2018-2028 year American debt expires quantity (billion dollar, grade C~BBB+ ) , origin: In golden company
The dollar goes strong from also will drive semiconductor to close on the other hand and buy: The dollar rises again and again to the exchange rate of the other money such as euro, industry of semiconductor of your United States crosses virtually condition bought capital actual strength increases. Be like with and so on, yen serves as avoid danger money, in economic inaccuracy dollar of regular meeting add appreciates, this one posture is in 2018 Japanese semiconductor industry again and again abroad buy in order to revive in the plan of industry of native land electron, also had the effect of add fuel to the fire. Of course, if anticipate native money can last to drop, take the means rise in value of overseas investment as early as possible, to carrying brace up the industry is bought also can yet be regarded as inserts Liu Zhiju involuntarily.
Figure 8 2018 year Japan is abroad buy be as high as 140.4 billion dollar, origin: Bloomberg
3, social element (culture viewpoint, population grows)
IPO appears on the market or be bought to be two kinds of mechanisms of fluidity of poineering company implementation, to it relevant put all the time on poineering culture have two kinds of point of views: One person often inspect sell a company to be failure, must abiding retain manage independently; Additional person criterion more accept sell company and the person that do poineering work continuously. For example, science and technology of deep ancient bronze mirror is bought by Xilinx, domestic public opinion ever sobbed unceasingly. In fact, particular case is particular this is both and affirmative below the analysis each have advantages and disadvantages, and a direct current is, be bought in high-tech domain already became opposite more the choice of the mainstream.
Number of company of IPO of Figure 9 United States rises on average with what appear on the market the first day (1980-2015) , origin: Kauffman
Semiconductor industry originally special depend on development of industrial modes of life and relation to their environment, current new technology does poineering work company, wait for a domain like AI and content couplet net, it is to should endow with setting of can traditional industry more, what accordingly existence is favorred buy by traditional business is natural and idiosyncratic; Next, as the propulsion of advanced technique node, the cost of research and development of semiconductor field company and cycle (difficulty) it is mushroom, the uncertainty with successful commerce increases greatly, IPO Yao cannot be reached be inferior to be being bought, conformity arrives inside powerful system ensure steady progress comes actually. 2018, intel bought to held water 2015, core group only the latter of Vertex.AI—— of newly established company of 7 people is dedicated component of model of development artificial intelligence, short-term inside cannot build commercial pattern to realize gain independently, buy through this, intel acquired a seasoned group and intellectual property, can realize brim calculative further agile deepness learns. Future, increasing company of similar technique newly established, the development that the likelihood closes for semiconductor industry and purchases creates window.
Enter after 2019, population and discharge bonus fade are used up, the impetus halt of semiconductor cycle, need the burgeoning industry be born such as net of couplet of 5G, content, AI, ability becomes semiconductor below one round to develop engine. The enterprise is in layout new field, when extending company business diversification, the means —— that close and be being bought is first consideration normally is investigated according to Bimawei make clear, quite semiconductor industry of the amount, especially the person that the industry precedes still inspects the requirement that trades to grow for the near future, and the main strategy that in aiding force chip manufacturer to change in the industry, keeps banner. Be based on this element judgement, of prospective semiconductor industry close and buy be sure to last.
Figure 10 United States sells the smartphone amount to terminal user (2010-2020) , origin: Statista
Strategy of industry of Figure 11 semiconductor is first class, origin: KPMG Semiconductor Outlook 2018
4, element of science and technology
Rub Er law goes to the end, semiconductor domain seeks new technology to develop directional breakthrough, on Beyond CMOS method, the importance of new framework, new material and new technology is highlighted increasingly, new technology develops ceaselessly and appear with breathtaking speed, traditional semiconductor industry is seasonable the way with the quickest follow-up will mature namely group or industry incorporate into one’s own forces are subordinate. Comb industry tycoon in recent years close and buy case, also confirm this bit.
The company that Figure 12 Intel, IBM and SamSung basically buy in recent years, origin: Crunchbase
Although, yu Hong of be put into trouble watchs the uncertainty of politics and economic condition, but the individual thinks: Although case dimensions is broken through harder, or stem from hold a group in the arms to warm oneself or go against situation labor force or welcome industrial new opportunity, in the near future predicting semiconductor industry closes and buy still will have emerge in large numbers of a tide.