Recently, lyons negotiable securities (an analyst expresses to CNBC, although the United States and China did not produce trade war, semiconductor industry also very will fast glide considerably. He expresses, memory chip demand puts delay, inventory level rises and the price drops wait for an element to may bring about this industry to appear periodic glide. Other analyst also was made similar forecast, a few people show, trade war is possible because affect to the gain of semiconductor industry farther aggravate,glide.
Graph source: CNBC
The investor of Lyons negotiable securities that Sebastian Hou of semiconductor investment analyst holds in Hong Kong recently expresses on forum, the custom duty accuse and denounce at a meeting that has between two economy powerful nation is already right semiconductor market demand produced a few effects, but before this the market already had glide evidence, include level of memory chip price fall, inventory to increase, the demand of the fast growth domain such as data center server, car and industry puts delay.
His complement says, trade war can cause an effect to market demand latent capacity of course, but in fact, even if does not have trade war, semiconductor board piece also can experience a callback, because whole the reserve that supplies chain already special tall. What the callback that he says points to normally is the financial asset value such as the stock drops 10% or above.
Other if analyst Shawn Kim is in Magenshidanli to be bought with semiconductor,the home is mixed after selling the home to chat, point out, memory market environment becomes more and more inactive. A few experts are forecasted even, commerce custom duty can make semiconductor industry profit glides 25% and make circumstance more flooey.
The data of Gartner of market research organization shows, battalion received global semiconductor 2017 for 420.4 billion dollar, grow 21.6% compared to the same period. Profit growth basically comes from in short supply bring about the price to take high memory chip market. This orgnaization forecasts global semiconductor when this year January battalion closes a digit growth will resume 2018, and “2019 year memory chip market will experience a callback, semiconductor battalion closes to glide small ” .
Of Sebastian Hou forecast also be like with and so on. “ from this year the four seasons spends next year the fourth quarter, there are a few quarters among we may see semiconductor industry grows compared to the same period appear negative growth ” . He predicts, semiconductor industry may experience 0 growth even 2019.
Nevertheless, for example the development of the new technology such as net of couplet of artificial intelligence, 5G, content, the likelihood picks up demand of drive semiconductor industry again. However Sebastian Hou thinks to need to handle these technologies carefully.
The much in these “ technologies still is in inchoate phase, because this industry holds very tall hope to them. This explained the reason that in supplying chain, books above quota, and why inventory level is so high. ”Sebastian Hou predicts, once next periodic slippery ends of this industry, semiconductor industry is likely even because of the demand of all sorts of new application grow with rapidder rate.
From the point of another angle, the foreground of a lot of chip manufacturer of current dominant market is not very hopeful, samSung electron, Intel, SK Hynix and beauty are for instance smooth wait, because increasing the memory chip that the product that manufacturer of this science and technology and Internet company begin oneself of research and development and data center institute require.
These “ companies hope to optimize their outstanding achievement to be changed in order to realize difference, accordingly they have motivation to do this thing, ”Sebastian Hou points out, “ the industry transformation that this also is a model, future the 5 market share that have bibcock company in 10 years will cut. ”