China regards global semiconductor as the biggest spending market, year entrance amount is in 100 million dollars of 1700-1900, considering can accuse independently and the burgeoning industry delegate that semiconductor grows as native economy, develop industry of native land semiconductor energetically imperative, the investment opportunity determinism that exists among them is very tall, and boom cycle of future is longer. How investor grasps the long-term investment opportunity of industry sex, the article discusses roughly, cast a brick to attract jade-offer a few commonplace remarks by way of introduction so that others may come up with valuable opinions.
One, opportunity: Development of industry of our country semiconductor is backward
Authoritative statistic makes clear related, at present dimensions of demand of Chinese semiconductor market takes the whole world 41% , but the industry supplies Chinese semiconductor to be able to be achieved only however 12% ; This among them, 11% what belong to industrial top, and the circle of simple any crystalline substance that is located in bottom is acting the factory is more 7% what take the whole world only.
According to the statistical data of WSTS, battalion received global semiconductor 2017 add up to 412.4 billion dollar, relatively the 338.7 billion dollar 2016 rises greatly 21.6% . 18 years global IC heat is not decreased first quarter, grow 20% compared to the same period, sale amount is 111.1 billion dollar, demand of chinese mainland semiconductor upsurges continuously, successive growth of 7 quarters sale exceeds two digit per cent, 30% what be close to global demand at present.
According to custom total office data is calculated, integrated circuit sold adverse balance of trade to be one hundred and ninety-three billion two hundred and sixty million dollar 2017, grew 16.41% 2016 compared to the same period, achieve again in recent years new tall. The import that exceeds an in part among them comes from Taiwan area and Korea, occupy score to be 32% with 23% . And amount of entrance of oil of our country of the corresponding period is one hundred and sixty-two billion three hundred and thirty million dollar.
2, what does the integral industry catenary of semiconductor have?
Will look from industrial catenary, semiconductor upper reaches basically includes equipment and material two parts, production of middle reaches IC includes “ to design – make – enclose – test ” a few link, downstream application basically is centered in the computer, consumption kind the domain such as electron of electron, network communication, car.
Semiconductor product differs by sort, main component is integrated circuit (Integrated Circuit, parts of an apparatus of abbreviation IC) , photoelectron, schism and sensor 4 parts. Because come for years,integrated circuit sale occupies semiconductor to sell specific gravity to all amount to 80% above, because take the place of IC commonly on this market,point to for semiconductor.
In addition, integrated circuit distinguishs according to different function utility, basically include 4 kinds big: Microprocessor (make an appointment with 18%) , memory (make an appointment with 23%) , logistic chip (make an appointment with chip of 27%) , imitate (make an appointment with 14%) .
At present global IC industry has pattern of two kinds of trade: IDM(Integrated Device Manufacturer, compositive parts of an apparatus is made) mode and mode of perpendicular division of labor.
IDM is to point to from the design, make, enclose a test to the sale to have IC product oneself, the commercial pattern; that all finishs by a company
Perpendicular division of labor is the design that points to IC, make and enclose a test to devise a note of the ancient Chinese five-tone scale by professional IC respectively (manufacturer of Fabless) , IC (Foundry) , IC encloses test business (the commercial pattern; that Package&Testing) assumes
Will look at present, IDM mode still takes main place in the whole world. Battalion of global TOP20 manufacturer closed 2016 add up to hold global semiconductor sale about 80% , among them, 20 strong in IDM manufacturer battalion receives dimensions to occupy it is than making an appointment with 68% , fabless is occupied than for 18% , foundry is occupied than for 14% .
Semiconductor industry attributes periodic trade, its development and GDP dependency are taller, whole shows positive to involve situation. In last few years as net of couplet of artificial intelligence, big data, content, AR/VR, can apparel the field such as equipment is new the development of generation IT, semiconductor industry was entered afresh again new round boom is periodic.
3, big player: The investment of super brunt big fund is politic
Big on September 24, 2014 fund holds water, earlier dimensions 120 billion yuan, end dimensions already achieved 138.7 billion yuan in June 2017. Show “ 2 period ” is brewing in, predict not under one billion two hundred and fifteen million seven hundred and fifty-two thousand one hundred and ninety-two dimensions.
End June 2017, by “ the industry of local integrated circuit of prize of big fund ” invests fund (in including to prepare to construct) amount to 514.5 billion yuan, increase big fund, at present amount of fund of investment of integrated circuit estate is as high as chinese mainland 653.2 billion yuan.
The key of big fund first phase is being made, in current investment, production investment is occupied than be 65% , the design is occupied 17% , measure occupy 10% , equipment material is occupied 8% . The production that big fund invests divides a leg to walk: Brilliant circle acting labour stores.
Strategy of big fund investment is: The mainstay business in investing link of every industry chain mainly, union invests the additionally a few companies that have particular distinguishing feature. Up to accumulative total of big in September 2017 fund decision-making investment 55 projects, involve company of 40 integrated circuit, in all acceptance is contributive 100.3 billion yuan, affirmatory investment occupies a period collect 72% of market fund. At present big fund holds stock market value to exceed 20 billion, those who cover 13 semiconductor field appear on the market company.
At present the investment of first phase had obtained big fund effect. Sale of round manufacturing industry of brilliant of Chinese integrated circuit was 139 billion yuan 2017, sale predicted to will be climbed further 2018 litre reach 176.7 billion yuan.
Big fund 2 period the key is being designed, focusing is burgeoning application. Big fund will increase the investment to designing job appropriately, around national strategy and burgeoning industry, for instance the domain such as net of couplet of electrified wire netting of intelligent car, intelligence, artificial intelligence, content, 5G undertakes investing planning
4, the bibcock that searchs fractionize field
1) IC material: Core sees brilliant round vendor, do not have helper opportunity temporarily.
According to association of international semiconductor industry (SEMI) report, dimensions of market of global IC production data was in 2016 24.7 billion dollar, enclose data market to be 19.6 billion dollar. Among them, in IC production material, silicon brilliant is occupied roundly than highest, amount to 32% . This one market basically is Japanese manufacturer dominant. Japanese letter is jumped over, the bibcock manufacturer that SUMCO is industry of silicon chip production, two businesses are total 50% what hold market share about.
Chinese mainland IC made data market dimensions be 6.53 billion dollar 2016, be next to Taiwan area, Korea and Japan. Nevertheless the company of this one domain did not appear on the market at present, temporary the investor of 2 class market still cannot be participated in.
2) IC equipment: Homebred change a trend to begin to show, but core supplier is ASML
IC equipment industry has taller technical camp, at present Euramerican day manufacturer still holds absolutely dominant position.
Dutch ASML, this company is the provider of Wu of kimono of photoetching aircraft equipment with the greatest whole world. Forestall the market the portion of 80% , be in extremely ultraviolet light (EUV) domain, be in monopoly position at present. In core international purchases aircraft of an EUV photoetching to A Simai recently, monovalent 120 million U.S. dollor. In the near future, under 10nm advanced make Cheng will use production of EUV photoetching engine entirely. If chinese mainland cannot obtain this facility, we are in high-end chip domain will forever person of be enslaved to be enslaved to.
According to SEMI beforehand appraise, chinese native land company is right the demand of IC equipment, will be in 2018 – promote quickly between 2020, the investment amount that predicts pair of IC equipment is 10.8 billion dollar, 11 billion dollar, 17.2 billion dollar respectively.
So much factory should be in future two years of put into production, ASML should earn broke up.
See this picture, be who works after all? At present stage accumulating report is the biggest partner of ASML, samSung, Intel is the partner of ASML.
3) IC design: Did not appear on the market at present company.
Show according to IC Insights data, design in pure IC (Fabless) domain, the United States holds share of the biggest market, trade of American IC Fabless is total 2016 produce 62% what can hold the whole world. Gaotong and rich tell the bibcock firm that is IC Fabless industry, aggregate battalion receives both 51% what before occupying 10 battalion receive total. Connect battalion high 2016 to close among them for 15.4 billion dollar, rich connects battalion to receive 15.3 billion dollar.
The demand of the domain such as downstream shift of home of benefit from benefit from, communication is driven, domestic IC designs business competition ability to begin to be shown. According to IC Insights statistic, business of global TOP50 Fabless is medium 2009, only enterprise of a chinese mainland, and to 2016, measure of chinese mainland industry has amounted to 11, amalgamative city is occupied rate had added to 10% . Among them, hua Weihai is thought of, exhibit dispatch to already ascended before business of Fabless of body whole world 10.
4) IC makes: Mainland mainland produces can fast dilate
IC is made is the process that completes integrated circuit to engrave corrode on brilliant circle. At present international bibcock manufacturer already made technology Cheng development come 5nm class, the stage accumulates the bibcock manufacturer such as report, SamSung to already realized 10nm to make Cheng quantity produce, luo Fangde of Intel, case predicts the end of the year will realize a quantity to produce this year. In addition, the stage accumulates report to taking the lead in developing 5nm craft to make Cheng technology.
Show according to IC Insights data, make in pure IC (Foundry) domain, taiwan area holds share of the biggest market, trade of Taiwan area Foundry is total 2016 produce 73% what can hold the whole world. Among them battalion of stage accumulating report closes for 28.57 billion dollar, hold the whole world the market share of 58% .
Data sources: Academy of develop industry
IC is made belong to industry of capital, technology intensive, it is national policy and the key that fund pays close attention to. Among them in the capital of production domain of invest in IC, round factory of 12 inches of brilliant is occupied than the biggest. Main because of current whole world round demand of 12 inches of brilliant is the biggest, and domestic company is produced can occupy than very low. According to statistic of Chinese electron net, at present demand of only month of circle of brilliant of 12 inches of semiconductor silicon makes an appointment with the whole world 5.1 million, the mainland has 12 inches of plants already aggregate produce per month can make an appointment with 460 thousand only. The round factory of 12 inches of brilliant in building place at present is produced can make an appointment with 630 thousand, sheet of 12 inches of factories produces per month prospective mainland can will be as high as 1.09 million.
Before acting factory of mainland brilliant circle 10 list
Regard the bibcock of domestic IC manufacturing industry as the enterprise, hua Hong semiconductor can pay close attention to, dan Zhongxin international needs vigilance, above paragraphs ” in core international: Chip is homebred a place with a draught that change and reality ” in had given out investment opinion.
5) IC encloses a test: Be benefited brilliant circle is made produce can mainland is changed
According to IC Insights statistic, science and technology of life light, Amkor, long report, silicon tastes before be the whole world 4 big to survey a manufacturer.
The whole world seals before measuring a trade 10 manufacturers
Unit: 1 million dollars
According to statistic of IC Insights data, long report science and technology, China day science and technology, connect rich small report to wait inside endowment the enterprise already entered the whole world to seal before surveying a company 20. Grow electric science and technology among them after 780 million dollar buys friend of gold of Singapore star division, make the whole world the 3rd big surveys a company. Notable is, in the partner that core international and big fund are long report science and technology, core international is the biggest partner in (14.28% ) .
Semiconductor industry covers equipment and material, design, make, measure etc, our country is in equipment and material domain are very fragile, the abroad of the mark of equipment domain sees ASML, domestic manufacturer only Shanghai microelectronics equips a little a few stronger, but still be in 65nm grade level, cannot see investment value temporarily. Material domain still also has no equal investment award, had not appeared on the market. Upriver equipment and material besides ASML, still have no other and optional investment mark at present.
Firm of native land design thinks of semiconductor besides the sea (China for) , violet light exhibits vigor, other actual strength is lesser, go all out very hard exorbitantly to connect, the American tycoon such as Intel, but these two did not appear on the market temporarily. Development of business of domestic design company is rapidder, but did not appear on the market, invest without method temporarily.
Production link is the domain that big fund emphasis invests, but at present in the native land bibcock that core international is a delegate is advanced make Cheng produce still can do not have to the limit of one’s capacity, 14nm business is occupied than achieving 10% , just be optimal investment opportunity, at present its 28nm is occupied only than 8% , 14nm predicts trial production of stage of 19 the beginning of the year, 2021 – can achieve the likelihood of 10% probably 2022.
Seal the technical doorsill that measures a domain not tall, but the strength that its fixed assets throws and phase of brilliant circle acting plant are compared not quite, outstanding achievement is more as affirmatory as growing value. Long report science and technology, China day science and technology appear on the market the company can pay close attention to for a long time.
The production value scale in the whole world will enlarge the semiconductor industry of prospective China ceaselessly, consumptive market of China is huge, this offers native land company the superexcellent environment that grow, in this one historic progress, it is not difficult to grasp an opportunity, as as synchronous as big fund, synchronous as bibcock, the rose that awaits value patiently blossoms.