From ” core ” initial Sino-US trade war, carry now ” real guns and bullets ” leave formally dozen

Perhaps up to now a lot of people still cannot understand, it is to be without almost bodeful, why Sino-US between can you erupt suddenly so large-scale economy conflict?

Now (on July 6) be destined will be global classics a day when the enough on trade history is record in annals. The United States prepares to be in a Zhou Wu (today) to China the export goods of 34 billion dollar is added impose custom duty, china will be added in custom duty after asking for make for a short while strike back, this is the two economy put oneself in another’s position with the largest whole world, a few months undertakes in preparation even the real the first gun of the start shooting in trade war of several years.

Perhaps up to now a lot of people still cannot understand, it is to be without almost bodeful, why Sino-US between can you erupt suddenly the economic conflict of such dimensions?

Actually, from the delegate the chip industry domain of top level comes to industry of a nation look, early begin to show a few clue. Follow the resurgence incident that Sino-US trade conflict erupts together, showing this.

In it is with the whole world enemy below setting, telangpu commerce punish whether expect like its in that way do a job with skill and ease? Right China can commerce menace resemble what its allege earning firmly in that way really again not compensate? Can Sino-US trade war move toward He Fang finally? Below the setting that China meets head-on in passivity, how should answer again?

The course that Chinese chip industry grows also is Sino-US the process that weichis in rich of high-tech domain actual strength, time look at historical developing a few incident, contact instantly again, we can comb the train of thought that gives a few clarity.

2009This year

In 3 years of in the past, zhao Wei country is global semiconductor industry in most get the part that fix eyes upon, also be the part that suffers controversy.

” of hungry tiger of this person “ never knows low-key why the entrepreneur of content, the individual was depended on 2009 the equity of 49% is strong join violet smooth group.

2009, to Zhao Wei country, it is a meaning a extraordinary year, it is life a year when begin new level. This year, recumbent oneself found build female the actual strength of the group, he 42 years old returns violet light the 2nd times, this, it is the identity with president of violet smooth group.

This year, what Zhang Ru Beijing founds is medium core international deep-set in the tremendous lair of lawsuit of tort be prosecutioned by stage accumulating report. In in stage of core international countercharge accumulates report to be rejected by Beijing tall courtyard after lawsuit requests, in American California court, the stage accumulates report to win the lawsuit again. Receive lawyer announcement that momently, zhang Ru Beijing puts acoustical cry bitterly before the phone, the 3rd day, he holds oneself responsible for a serious mistake abdication, those who left to struggle 9 years for it is medium core international.

This year, committee of American international trade (U.S.InternationalTradeCommission, “ITC”) of the following abbreviation is right chip 337 investigation case (record date: 337 – TA – 630) is made cut into parts eventually, adjudication this case is done not have to violate 337 provisions of American by the applicant. Because use,be suspected of tort chip and by be involved in limited company of memorial science and technology wins the our country Shenzhen of this case to get the better of so far.

This year, samSung announces to will begin a quantity to produce two 30nm to make Cheng NAND Shan Cunxin piece product. Among them one kind shows pair of times transmission technology that puts a product to use similar DDR memory, allege according to SamSung company, of this kind of product read taking bandwidth is the tradition shines put chip 3 times the left and right sides, odd such DDR MLC shines put chip data to transmit peak value bandwidth to be able to amount to 133Mbps, and old money shows the level that keeps chip to be able to achieve 40Mbps only. This means SamSung to produced chip industry domain to obtain the development that surmounts type again in the quantity.

These 2009 happening the thing of chip industry, look round nowadays, each thing has its important meaning place.

The beginning that semiconductor insanity buys

Regard SamSung dutiful as epigone and copyist, in Zhao Wei the country looks, everything what “ SamSung experiences is worth to learn and be summed up. ”Guide violet smooth group to step the chance of integrated circuit industry probably, result from this.

In June 2013, violet smooth group opens up endowment 1.87 billion dollar buys the communication that exhibit dispatch, begin to enter the eye shot inside course of study to be lasted to pay close attention to, zhao Wei country also open the its approximately crazy way that buys:

From July 2013 910 million dollar buys Rui Di division;

2.5 billion dollar buys HP banner to fall new China 51% equity of 3 communication;

3.1 billion dollar is bought with Fang Guoxin; 2 billion dollar becomes the partner that Chinese Taiwan seals the silicon that measure a yard twice to taste He Namao science and technology;

The United States of —— of business of hard disk production that 3.775 billion dollar buys the whole world to precede western data (Western Digital Corp) the share of 15% , become its the largest stockholder;

Dominant is counted on the west with 19 billion dollar (add up to 120 billion RMB about) bought Shan Cunxin piece manufacturer Shan Di (SanDisk) ;

……

A variety of reasons such as obstruct of government of United States of if it were not for, violet smooth likelihood still is met with 23 billion dollar in bursa of income of will beautiful optical science and technology, together with hearsay says its return international of the core in ever was being bought of purpose, couplet hair division and become a shareholder stage accumulating report, violet smooth group is in chip industry be able to of ” of “ hungry tiger and ” of “ local tyrant say, represented high speed of desire of Chinese chip industry to develop on different level at the same time, the —— of a kind of mode that overtakes even is bought.

So people can’ts help wanting to ask, of the buys mode after all to promote Chinese chip the industry core competition ability of this kind of insanity and industrial pattern upgrade?

Time gave out the answer.

Arrived nowadays 2018, promote event from which erupt, to what upgrade increasingly at present Sino-US commerce chafes, see the case that Zhao Wei country buys for many times again, accomplished the prestige of ” of “ hungry tiger for violet light besides spend money like water, the current situation of industry of Chinese integrated circuit is done not have how old improvement, even —— is worse.

This is not exaggerate sth just to scare people, those who need a specification is, be in to violet smooth group inside course of study the insanity of global chip industry buys sound of strategic hold demur to never had stopped.

Guo Taiming once call Zhao Wei country when accepting media special report just is one is fried investor, caused intense echo inside course of study. Have more very person listing an a lot of fact to come to those who prove violet light to be bought is for his capital is run only. Some IC design old man of familiar China is observing to after the series of Zhao Wei country buys act, say, chinese country produces trade policy, the technology that is the company outside hoping to obtain a country and management Know-how, come aggrandizement is own industry, the entrance that finishs semiconductor product then is replaced, and review Zhao Wei country a series of important be bought or become a shareholder, all did not gain the director seat of absolute majority. Lend this judgement, violet light just is making capital actually and not be operation conformity, did not intervene manage, and in chip industry, know-how and technology are acquired through be being bought without method.

If say afore-mentioned it is the buys often to violet smooth group doubt inside course of study, so the Chinese company that represents with its is in the United States especially in the whole world this kind of pattern that without a stop buys high-tech company had risen to country and industrial level a few days ago.

Fuse

On January 6, 2017, advisory committee of American president science and technology was published ” ensure the United States leads a position for a long time in semiconductor domain ” report, this report thinks Chinese chip industry is already right American country and relevant enterprise cause serious menace. For this, the member includes Intel and connecting those who wait for chip manufacturer high to currently hold the post ofthe proposal that with predecessor the committee of presiding apparitor gives out is: Prevent China to buy the United States to just think to affect industry of all semiconductor technology of its state security and chip, the limitative China trade investment to beautiful chip, exit and purchase, mix at the same time other country together, the abroad chip that strengthens limitation to examine China is exported and invest.

And the insanity that one of causes that cause these move are Chinese enterprise is bought. Last year the end of the year, · Pu Lici overcomes Buddhist nun of of minister of American business affairs (Penny Pritzker) gives out a warning to say, chinese government plans to invest 150 billion dollar, the home market portion to product of will homebred 2025 integrated circuit from now 9% expand to 70% , this kind of extensive investment may be screwy market of global integrated circuit, destroy industry innovation ecosystem.

This one report was brought about directly on March 23, 2018, the United States moves “301 to investigate ” to Hua Qi. Abroad be being bought is the most serious content among 301 findings report, occupy almost the length of the half. The report thinks, chinese enterprise makes 2025” in “ China medium strategical the industry is bought wildly, get American technology, wait like technology of integrated circuit, robot, aviation, biology. Have governmental background or the report points out these enterprises are most is the capital support that got a government, so of China buying deed is to realize “ China to make the technology of the blame market action that 2025” target has buy actually.

This the United States is cast those who go out is the 301 investigation that transfer regulation to problem of Chinese intellectual property and technology, basically be aimed at industry of new and high technology, the speaking watch of Ross of minister of American Department of Commerce was shown on March 23, do not think future is in these domain China to have a challenge to them.

Before this, telangpu signs memorandum, basis “301 investigates ” result, american general is large-scale to the goods that imports from China impose custom duty, limitative China company invests to the United States and buy; With day, chinese Department of Commerce announced 7 kinds when import from the United States, 128 duty product (basically be produce) plan to add the detailed list that imposes custom duty to seek public opinion.

So far the war of a trade that international economy domain made a person fix eyes upon most 2018 is between two the whole world is the strongest big countries start shooting.

Perhaps up to now a lot of people still cannot understand, it is to be without almost bodeful, why Sino-US between can you erupt suddenly the economic conflict of such dimensions?

Actually, from the delegate the chip industry domain of top level comes to industry of a nation look, early begin to show a few clue. Follow the resurgence incident that Sino-US trade conflict erupts together, showing this.

Can none exaggerated says, with national policy dominant, the full-scale development that is typical Chinese high-tech industry with deploy of chip industry strategy and upgrade, it is the direct fuse that this Sino-US trade war emerges.

The core of Sino-US trade war: The battle of science and technology

This “301” findings report shows pair of China industries to the strategy is familiar with very and pay close attention to highly. It cites extensively country of ” of compendium of program of development of long-term science and technology, “ is medium in country of “ China production 2025“ , “ compendium of program of long-term talent development (2010-2020 year) ” , 935 biology of “ produce ” of estate development program, “ the program of industry of many China government such as ” of program of development of artificial intelligence of new generation of ” of special program of innovation of technology of 935 ” biology, “ .

This report is right actually development of Chinese science and technology, transfer of technology, industry upgrades the system that waits for relevant policy and comb in the round, and the detailed summary of the relatively successful case that China is introduced and uses new and high technology. The report makes clear: “ technology and economy of intellectual property drive grow, economy of your United States holds competitive dominant position. Final, china asks or apply control the action that undertakes the technology is transferred, policy and way, weakened the value of American company intellectual property, whole world competition ability that reduced the United States, block up innovation invests. Accordingly, commerce of your United States bear press and suffer be restricted. ”

Simple for, namely, all the time since, technology and growth of economy of intellectual property drive are to maintain the United States to become world the biggest state for a long time positional advantage. And now, china uses the reforming and opening that has passed ten years to blend in international trade and the flying development that economic system obtains and gigantic golden eggs, absorb the latest technology of Internet domain, begin to realize the layout of high-tech industry and rapid development. This caused high vigilance of the United States, before China has not risen abruptly truly, do it now, return there’s still time.

And decide war of this Sino-US trade finally upgrade whether, originate American judgement: Be China so do can you rise abruptly really after all? 2 it is with the United States nowadays and even long-term development look, below the condition that does not hurt oneself, can you finish pair of adversary of this Chinese on the make after all make judge?

: of Chinese high-tech industry? In all Wan dusk Mo?

Liu He of Vice Prime Minister of Chinese the State Council is in Dawosi clarifies on forum, chinese economy already grew level to turn to high quality to develop level by high speed. The main connotation that high quality develops, optimize change to the structure from gross dilate namely.

So what kind of level is industrial current situation of China in after all in the whole world? From 2016 whole world of Chinese each industry has rate rank to look, chinese enterprise has the manufacturing industry with higher rate, have technical content and doorsill, but the technology is spent thick and fast not tall, in belonging to low spend technology intensive, those who be in value catenary is medium downstream.

What will see reflective high-tech level again is Sino-US alone horny animal industry is comparative:

The surface looks, china alone the amount of horny animal industry is next to the United States, but basically center in recreation of business affairs of Internet finance, electron, culture, life to serve these fields, in hardware, software, science and technology, make these represent field of high-tech actual strength alone horny animal still rare be short of.

In 20 centuries when Internet technology 90 time begin large-scale international transmission and civil when changing, china relies on whole industrial system, made full use of this one special favorable circumstances, realize the rapid development of Internet domain much property. Because this China is in,expression of mode innovation respect is highlighted. That is to say, more of innovation of type of so called China is the rational application on commercial pattern. because such, the core competition ability of a lot of China enterprises is not research and development of efficient management, technology or seed profit cost are controlled, carry puissant sale and sale however rapid and occupational market, realize the fast dilate of income and dimensions.

High-tech enterprise of China, basically be the 3rd club, namely commercialization is packed, make service of brand, sale, client. And the core component of the first club and the fair edition of the 2nd club, product circles the past. And innovate in the basiccest substance, namely on rock-bottom technology reserve, still having not little difference with traditional power, this is in chip industry domain, expression particularly apparent. And want to had stridden this to close, relied on the market to change a technology in the past, very difficult already now practicable, rely on to buy only, but today, if Sino-US trade war escalates, this door also should be shut.

And technology and economy of intellectual property drive grow, be the United States’ largest dominant position. The biggest money of American society and the largest dominant position are not money, also not be a person, however the environment that science and technology of American praise highly innovates. Science serves as a kind of distinctive regime, have 3 features: Universalism, take innovation seriously, devote oneself to promotional public welfare.

Innovation and technology are bought do not come

From long-term in light of, in intense international competitive environment falls, science and innovation are the greatest competition ability that American place has. Also be the crucial pain spot of United States of Chinese be enslaved to be enslaved to.

So China needs to think, the technique that the whole people pioneers innovates, how should come true, how to go be born, how to go upgrading to industrial level. Need to have above all include the environment of force, the good soil of seed of innovation of be pregnant with, advocate and encourage scientist, entrepreneur people the ethos of free exploration.

And long-term since, very much to China business, companies of those foreign innovation science and technology that confront technical level to exceed them far, the price that no matter the flower is how old,they see also is pursuant all up, what normally place should do is to buy buy. However, those who buy come partner chair, buy really come technology? Although Zhao Wei country inspects Li Jianxi to be God, but apparent, he just acquired the superficial knowledge of a bit strategy of SamSung, samSung can take today’s place, not be to rely on those who turn over cycle to be bought absolutely produce with enlarge so simple, however the undergo self-imposed hardships so as to strengthen one’s resolve to do sth of a few acting people, immerse oneself in hardworking, study a technique.

See the major issue of those influence chip industries that produced 2009 again later now, meeting discovery, chip industry of China grows lulu thering is no lack of just, the effort that gives for it and cost are how bitter. And the competitive all the more between country and country is intense with cruelty, want to rise abruptly when you even, people can be hit pressure. The development of oneself of industry of Chinese science and technology and upgrade, had arrived the degree of no time to delay.

How to answer trade war

Sino-US trade war is at present medium, will tell to the United States, china is the 3rd big market that the United States exports, commerce is protected and restrict Chinese trade, can affect 2.4 million work station of American. Will reduce China at the same time cheap and fine product, make the life of coarse estate people in the United States and social cost rise thereby.

To China, export suffocate suffocate to the United States, if do not have the favorable balance of trade of 3000 much dollars every year, to Chinese influence: One, Telangpu’s custom duty is right world plant position of China will be a serious menace, will cause China to produce extremely can serious superfluous; 2, estimation is as high as 50 million – station of 70 million works will be affected.

If China calculates to foreign trade favourable balance of the United States,fall only the word of 100 billion, have to China how old influence? 375.2 billion 3% what be equivalent to Chinese GDP, 100 billion pairs of China are affected actually is 0.8% . Eliminate is other element, should affect in 0.5% the left and right sides.

The effect with trade long-term war depends on, may cut off Chinese industry catenary to topmost and outspread way, the industrial transition of serious arrearage China. The mainstream that the only way that should break through this predicament is economy of the China that prop up must stride to manufacturing industry and the high end that serve industry, and should finish it relies on innovation only.

From this, turn pressure is motivation, china answers means best to be driven adamantinely further namely new round of reforming and opening, hold to an industry to upgrade, innovation drive, establish country, innovation to establish a country to be with intellectual property essential, reappearance is exhibited and expand inside need, enhance oneself core competition ability further. What future will continue possibly to enlarge manufacturing industry and service line of business is open, wait for a domain in provide for the aged, medical treatment, education, finance especially.

The development that trade war serves industry to Sino-US intellectual property and science and technology also will be historical good luck. Trade war will force Chinese intellectual property protects aggrandizement; Mechanism of Sino-US intellectual property is the same as possible farther hasten.

In general, rise abruptly as Chinese comprehensive national power, the Sino-US trade war that the United States puts forward, come from China make instead, it is certain at least degree or symbolistic be being made instead will be inevitable. And between the economic big country that large-scale trade war produces in two so huge general amounts, below the setting of globalization, will affect to global economy tremendous, district of very rare state can pay attention to one’s own moral uplift without thought of others, can foreknow fall in each go canvassing of square force and interference, the probability that reconciles finally is bigger.

Finally

On April 7, a draft that Xinhua News Agency releases ” Xi Jinping begins to hold Sino-US dynast to meet with Telangpu ” , xi Jinping says to Telangpu:

Be on speaking terms of “ Sino-US two countries, mix to two countries not only two countries people is advantageous, advantageous also to the world. We have 1000 reason to do well Sino-US relation, without a reason Sino-US relation do bad. Sino-US relation normalization comes 45 years, two countries relation although rain of storm of wind of all previous classics, but got historic progress, bring tremendous and actual profit to two countries people. How will Sino-US concern grow 45 years henceforth? Need us thoughtful, also need two countries leader to make political make a decision, take out the history to take on. I wish to be the same as presidential gentleman together, sino-US relation is driven to obtain greater progress on new start. ”

On July 4, china published for aspirations community China for father Ren Zhengfei with ” arouse one’s all efforts to make the country prosperous, revitalize 10 years ” the in-house speech that is a problem. Look in Ren Zhengfei, chip is urgent it is urgent do not come, “ not only it is problem of material of craft, equipment, bad news, the stock market to encircle money, exaggerated and too much. We still should be free from anxiety, know to be on the cloud, artificial intelligence oneself we lagged behind a lot of, just cannot bubble type ground is chased. On these problems, we should have the strategic plan of taller eye. ”

Ren Zhengfei expresses, “ the difference as to China and United States, estimation did not come 20 years – 30 years, even 50 years – return 60 years indelible. But, we should narrow difference to ‘ we want to be able to come down alive ’ . ”

Include Chinese government inside each force takes Sino-US trade war seriously extremely and face actively. Ge Weibao of director of center of law of American Yale China, professor thinks, the United States is right China footing is occurrent change, because Telangpu and the American president before are different,be; 2 because Chinese actual strength has increased considerably,be, the United States is right China policy should undertake adjustment of course. “ Sino-US need makes the basic principle with two concomitant countries and requirement together, of course the increase that every country wants to protect his, we should find the basic principle of Sino-US relation, two countries should consider this issue together, such ability have positive result, this is meddlesome to the whole world, because problem of the great majority on the world does not have the participation of Sino-US two countries,be inextricability. ”

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