The semiconductor prices of the world already began to show the fluctuant sign that comes from China. Intensify advancing semiconductor homebred the China that change already started installation cost in the round. Predict to will be the earliest by 2018 begin to supply most advanced product to the market three-dimensional NAND memory blocks chip. The excess supply of product of “ red ” that ever appeared in the numerous industry such as liquid crystal face plate causes the price possibly also to drop in semiconductor domain.
China advances volume of most advanced product to produce
We believe “2 ～ far from 3 years ago (Chinese enterprise) can advance smoothly, but the feeling is different now ” , heart of love of manufacturer of production equipment of Japanese large semiconductor 10 thousand tests (the sale controller of Advantest Corporation) is difficult attack by surprise is amazed. The quantity of the three-dimensional NAND that the Yangtse River that division of group of violet light of industry of large and state-owned semiconductor issues China stores science and technology saves Wuhan city to advance in Hubei produces an item, the sale chief of 10 thousand tests calls love heart “ estimation will be by 2018 to quick 2019 implementation the quantity produces ” .
Three-dimensional NAND is applied at the storage device of wisdom mobile phone and data center. Compare with traditional planar product photograph, the memory capacity of each chip increases greatly. Although China plans to measure yield product and world’s most most advanced three-dimensional NAND photograph to compare,return existence to be apart from, rising ceaselessly according to weighing the n of preproduction nevertheless.
The “ China that China announced 2015 puts forward to cultivate semiconductor industry in production 2025” strategy. For the China that has very high share to the domain is being made grasp in electronic equipment, semiconductor is the mainest entrance product. Improve commerce income and expenses to cannot leave semiconductor of self-sufficient rate rise.
For this, chinese local government uses the favourable policy such as allowance to attract eagerly domestic and international outside semiconductor is relevant enterprise. The Ferrotec Holdings Corporation of Japanese semiconductor industry that will set crystal round shop newly in Hangzhou city states “ got the invitation of much ground municipal government ” .
International semiconductor equipment and material association (SEMI) is forecasted, chinese semiconductor made equipment market dimensions will grow 4 to become compared to the same period 2018, add to 11.3 billion dollar. From what include the Chinese plant of foreign capital manufacturer this looks according to coming, market dimensions of China will be jumped litre to the whole world the 2nd, be next to Korea, those who hold integral market 2 into.
Not only such, had appeared even nowadays the semiconductor product that relies on Chinese company stability to offer money. Be NAND then on generation product, carry the NOR at home appliance and car memory to get stuck. Because face the demand of car and organic EL face plate to expand, the business controller) of the firm of semiconductor of ’”(of steamed bun of ‘ sweet steamed bun that the generation of “ China is versed in the enterprise becomes each to just be contended for.
Glide in demand of wisdom mobile phone wait for setting to fall, the prices performance of current NAND is fatigued and weak. Annual nevertheless the beginning of the year is the period that demand glides all along. Many viewpoints think, arrived to start war of trade of the end of the year to be purchased with component of wisdom mobile phone Spring 2018 around, NAND will be immersed in condition of be in short supply again.
So foreground how? Na Chuanming of chief analyst of IHS Markit of British investigation company expresses “2020 year supply and demand of the following NAND depends on ” of science and technology of storage of the Yangtse River. If the plan of this company full consideration goes in, will appear the earliest to be begged for be more than 2021. The NAND price of predicting capacity 256GB is in ～ is annual 2021 2019 will with making an appointment with 2 ～ 3 become rate drop. That is to say, the price of 7 dollars predicts average 2017 unit price to will fall 2021 to 2.4 dollars.
China is exuberant inside need what also will conduce to semiconductor industry to breed. After mobile phone of predicting afterwards wisdom, data center will make the market of next rapid growth. After tycoon of IT of afterwards North America, the Chinese company such as the group is expanding Tecent and Alibaba investment.
The times that dominant of Chinese control price counterpoises will come
A lot of people think the Yangtse River stores “ is confined to at present supply low end product ” . This company still is faced with how to ensure the task such as technical personnel.
Nevertheless, what expand in Chinese manufacturer portion is medium market of face plate of small size liquid crystal, also be with facing the low end of manufacturer of Chinese wisdom mobile phone the product is a center to begin to gain ground at the outset. Nowadays, the price difference of the expensive refined product that day Han manufacturer has an advantage and Chinese product already narrowed 1 into the left and right sides.
The Sino-US commerce that at present appears chafes, semiconductor also makes a central point. If China increases semiconductor import to avoid to chafe with American happening, will go against semiconductor homebred change a course.
The domain waits in face plate of steely, petrochemical, smooth hot season, because China hards iron,frontal investment brings about the circumstance common occurance that market level breaks down. Also manufacturer of Chinese semiconductor material expresses to be able to be absorbed before experience lesson, “ won’t sell semiconductor blindly, bring about ” of unbalance of supply and demand. But from supply and demand two levels look, may greet the times that dominant of Chinese control price counterpoises.